Russia’s Latest Attacks Signal Putin’s Desperation, Not Strength
Last month, I was honored to travel with a Razom for Ukraine delegation to Ukraine during a significant inflection point in the war. This year, Ukraine halted and even reversed Russian gains on the battlefield. However, over the summer, Russian air attacks became more numerous and brazen. Rather than strength, this indicates desperation from a Kremlin trying to regain the upper hand in a war that is increasingly unpopular at home.
Russia recently deployed a jet-powered Shahed drone that travels three times as fast as the conventional version that has terrorized Ukrainian cities and villages since 2022, launching more than 1,600 into Ukraine in July and almost doubling that number in August. The drone’s speed gives civilians less time to take cover and makes it harder to shoot them down, so more reach their targets – typically civilian infrastructure. Ballistic missiles generally follow the enhanced Shaheds.
Gas stations, food storage facilities, transportation hubs, hospitals, and small businesses are among President Valdimir Putin’s targets. Russia has destroyed 90% of Ukraine’s food storage and logistics infrastructure, and last month a passenger bus was struck, killing five and injuring seven. While attacks used to take place mainly at night, now they occur throughout the day. Each time an air raid siren sounds, above-ground businesses must close, sometimes multiple times daily, until each all-clear sounds. Workers often spend all or part of each night in shelters. Several locations we visited, including restaurants and border crossings, were struck days and sometimes hours after we left.
Visiting foreign dignitaries used to provide a respite from air attacks to avoid inadvertently injuring or killing prominent figures. Things were quiet in Kyiv when world leaders descended on the city to celebrate Independence Day in late August, as well as during a recent visit by President Donald J. Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. However, in September, a train parked at a rail station on the Ukraine-Poland border next to one holding former CIA Director, General David Petraeus, USA (ret.) was struck minutes after a train carrying former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson departed the same station.
President Putin’s acts of terrorism and recklessness grow with his desperation. He “celebrated” the passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 in the U.S. House of Representatives with an air barrage that left 20 people in Kyiv injured and prompted Poland to scramble jets near its border with Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s tactics are unlikely to succeed. Historically, air power is an important military tool that alone is insufficient to win wars. Additionally, Russian atrocities committed in places like Bucha and Mariupol, as well as the abduction and forced militarization of Ukraine’s children (referenced in the ALEC article, Bring the Youngest Victims Home in Russia’s War against Ukraine, and this ALEC interview) have convinced Ukrainians that surrender is not an option and that the absence of a ceasefire agreement is preferable to one that does not prevent future Russian aggression.
While Ukrainians steel themselves for another long winter, Russian support for the war is waning as the conflict’s costs rise. The Kremlin, which is losing eight military personnel for each felled Ukrainian soldier at a rate of 30,000 casualties a month, has plans to begin mass conscription of Russians, prompting young men to flee the country.
Russia is beset by economic stagnation characterized by projected economic growth of .6%; inflation at 6%; and 14% interest rates. As a Kiel Institute report observed, “…the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion,” with fiscal reserves depleted and dependence on Beijing increasing as sanctions and worker scarcity resulting from depopulation take their toll.
Read ALEC’s China, Russia and Ukraine: An Overlooked Moment at the Munich Security Conference for more on the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) support for the Kremlin’s war effort.
Ukraine’s strategy of taking out Russia’s energy infrastructure (detailed in ALEC’s Operation Epic Fury May Have Dealt Zelensky a Winning Hand) not only decreased Russia’s energy exports but also created the most severe domestic fuel shortage since the fall of the Soviet Union, leaving 70% of the country’s petrol stations empty. The crisis has spread to Central Asia, which is highly dependent on Russian energy imports, and spurred Moscow to halt diesel exports through October. Last weekend’s parliamentary elections, considered rigged even by Russian standards failed to measure popular frustration accurately with a war that is closing in on its fifth year. All antiwar parties and most antiwar candidates were banned weeks ago in a country that has earned a 4/40 Political Rights rating from Freedom House.
Ukraine has proved remarkably resilient and innovative in defending its people and sovereignty. President Zelensky has been consistent in his request for air defenses since Russia’s 2022 invasion. At last month’s Independence Day ceremony, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced the formation of a Coalition of the Willing to support Ukraine militarily, urging allies “to dig into … stocks of air defence … to protect Ukraine from the missiles that are falling now.” A Ukrainian victory is the best way to prevent a future Russian attack against NATO allies.