Germany’s Political Shift: An ALEC Women’s Leadership Episode
With an 82% Turnout, German Voters Reject the Traffic Light Coalition—Now, a New Government Must Tackle Economic and Security Challenges
Arlington, VA – Germany’s recent election drew an 82% voter turnout – a number unheard of here in the States. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) sister parties clinched a plurality with 28.5% of the vote, while the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), founded just 12 years ago, captured a striking 20.9%. Christiane von Czettritz und Neuhaus and Sibel Öztürk-Bastanoglu from the Hanns Seidel Foundation joined Karla Jones, Vice President of the ALEC Center for International Freedom, to dissect these outcomes and detail the coalition-building process poised to steer Germany’s future.
“I think the German people were dissatisfied with the so-called traffic light coalition,” explained von Czettritz und Neuhaus. “They were dissatisfied because of the economy and with defensive security.”
After enduring three consecutive quarters of recession, Germans were grappling with surging inflation driven by energy price shocks and security fears following a terrorist attack in Munich. Frustration also mounted over the government’s response to Ukraine and ham-handed mandates including expensive heating system upgrades and a proposed “veggie day” to curb meat consumption. This newfound disillusion sets the stage for a new coalition, tasked with delivering better outcomes—so far, it appears that the CDU/CSU and SPD are unified.
“I think the biggest difference is that CSU is only in Bavaria, like in one state of Germany, and the CDU is in all other 15 states of Germany,” said von Czettritz und Neuhaus.
Beyond this distinction, the CDU and CSU, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, have fortified their alliance after past friction over migration policy. Their shared agenda focuses on economic revitalization, migration management, and enhanced security—spurred by recent terrorist incidents—with discussions underway to reinstate conscription to bolster Germany’s national and EU-level defenses.
The AfD, despite its electoral gains, remains excluded from the ruling coalition due to its radical positions, a stance unequivocally affirmed by CDU and CSU leadership.
“There is no chance that the CDU or CSU is going to cooperate with the AfD on any level,” von Czettritz und Neuhaus said.
That leaves the Social Democratic Party (SPD) as the CDU/CSU’s most feasible partner, with cooperation with the AfD and the Left (Die Linke) Party firmly off the table. The coalition-building process features exploratory discussions to align priorities, formal negotiations to craft an agreement, party approval, and the Bundestag’s election of the chancellor, followed by ministerial appointments. Talks are progressing between the SPD-CDU/CSU and on March 18 the Bundestag voted to reform the German debt brake (Schuldenbremse) which will give Merz more flexibility to increase defense spending and spur economic growth.
“The Friedrich Merz-led government will aim to make Germany more geopolitically assertive, while also reinforcing its commitment to transatlantic security,” explained Öztürk-Bastanoglu. “It will focus on deepening European defense cooperation and also maintaining close coordination with NATO allies, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom.”
This includes sustained diplomatic, financial, military, and humanitarian support for Ukraine, alongside backing its EU membership and role in a future peace process with robust security assurances. Merz’s plans prioritize strengthening the Bundeswehr through reinstated conscription, investments in drone and space defense, and adherence to NATO’s 2% GDP spending target, while enhancing ties with France and Poland via the Weimar Triangle.
“Germany’s security policy was shaped by a culture of military restraint, which is deeply rooted in our history of World War II and the time before,” Öztürk-Bastanoglu surmised. “This is why Germany holds back so much. However, given today’s geopolitical realities, Germany now recognizes that this approach must evolve. Germany and Europe are aware of the growing security challenges and are committed to taking greater response responsibility for their own defense.”
(This article is based on an interview recorded on March 3, 2025.)