Russian Interference Shatters Georgia’s EU Aspirations: Western Resolve Can Put the Pieces Together Again

During the final weekend of October, as North Korean troops marched into Russia to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk, Vladimir Putin celebrated another strategic victory:  controversial parliamentary elections in Georgia marred by Russian interference mustered enough votes to realize a key Kremlin objective – upending Georgian European Union (EU) accession.  Barring reversal, these results effectively return Georgia, a country vital for US strategic interests in the Black Sea, to the Kremlin’s orbit.

Leading up to the October 26 parliamentary elections, the Russian-backed Georgian Dream Party (GD) disseminated disinformation and threats including a warning of war with Russia, on par with Ukraine, if the Georgian people failed to make the right choice. GD won 54% of the vote on an election day marked by violent outbreaks at polling stations across the country and significant evidence of irregularities. The party immediately vowed to strengthen ties with Russia and pledged to make good on the campaign promise of banning all of the main opposition parties in Georgia, creating a one-party system. The process of annulling parties and removing parliamentary seats has begun. Political interference is a well-worn page in Putin’s playbook as described in ALEC’s Moldova Takes a Big Step Toward Joining the West.

Western governments, including the United States, the EU, France, Germany, and Poland, have called for probes into the legitimacy of the outcome, pointing to GD’s strong Russian connections, the threats of war, and the Georgian people’s long-held overwhelming support for EU membership  as ample evidence that the election was anything but free and fair. Former Georgia President Salome Zourabichvili and pro-democracy opposition parties, which each earned 8-11% of the vote, have urged citizens to object. Heeding her call, Georgians took to the streets to protest the outcome for weeks, and Zourabichvili, who describes herself as Georgia’s “only legitimate President,” met with then President-elect Trump in December to enlist US support and traveled to Washington, DC for his inauguration.

For decades, Georgia has struggled to break free from Russia’s grip. Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution was the first of the color revolutions in the post-Soviet space, when Georgians distanced themselves from the Kremlin by expelling Soviet-era officials from governmental leadership positions and embracing democracy and the West. However, ALEC’s article, Democratic Hope Fades in the Republic of Georgia, illustrates that progress to Westernize stalled. The Rose Revolution’s early promise faded as corruption, the concentration of political power in one party, and Russia’s relentless pressure to control Georgia’s development distorted the governing structures into something more consistent with Russian oligarchy than Western democracy.

Since 2012, the Georgian Dream party has continuously held power, using that time to intensify its hold. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred GD to dramatically shift governance and rhetoric. Perhaps in fear of retaliation from Russia, GD has taken advantage of Georgia’s constitution to consolidate its power to appease Putin. Georgia’s constitutional architecture created a mostly ceremonial president in the executive. The power of the head of government lies with the Prime Minister, enabling the party in control of Georgia’s unicameral legislature to rule Georgia unchecked.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, GD’s founder and lead, is an oligarch who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s. While he has not served in Georgia’s government since 2013, when he was Prime Minister, Ivanishvili continues to operate as the “puppet master” of Georgian politics. Under Ivanishvili’s leadership, GD has implemented policies strikingly similar to Moscow’s, including a new foreign agent law targeting civil society NGOs that receive more than 20% of their funding from outside Georgia. Tbilisi has earned Kremlin praise for criticizing the West and labeling the European Union as fascist.

After years of promising to pursue greater Western integration, on November 28, the GD suspended talks on EU membership. The EU Commission had already halted Georgia’s accession plan in July 2024 citing Tbilisi’s rejection of Western values and the government’s continuous  inflammatory rhetoric.

GD’s official rejection of EU membership was a momentous victory for Putin and the final straw for many Georgians. Thousands flooded the streets of Georgia’s capital in the weeks following the suspension with demands for representative democracy being met with tear gas and water cannons. Hundreds have been arrested and hospitalized, including opposition leaders, leading to EU condemnation of the government’s brutality. An opportunity to recommit Georgia to a European path, this election may have facilitated an authoritarian takeover.

Autocracy’s recent global rise has shown that democracy can disappear by force or the ballot box. Putin attempted to annex parts of Georgia by force in 2008; now, election inference has become his preferred method of conquest. The United States and the EU must continue to support Georgian civil society and encourage Georgians to pursue a future aligned with the West. With losses in Ukraine and Syria, Putin is greatly diminished, and Georgia, an active NATO participant, is too strategically valuable to sacrifice.