Belarus Flexes Its Diplomatic and Strategic Muscles after Another Sham Election

Belarus’ longtime authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko was in his element at this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Tianjin, China where he met with Xi Jinping who described the United States as a “faltering superpower”. Xi also advanced the idea that China has the requisite stability to command a new global order, implying that the United States does not. The SCO is the presumed organizational embodiment of that leadership. Narendra Modi still bristling at the punitive 50% tariffs levied by the US for India’s Russian energy purchases was emblematic of national leaders drifting away from the West and toward the People’s Republic of China (PRC) orbit. This was Modi’s first visit to China in seven years. Lukashenko’s prominence among the other heads of state and of government at a Summit that welcomed North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of NATO member Turkey and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian was a striking contrast to his diplomatic outreach to the U.S. months ago.

In a surprising turn of events this June, Lukashenko freed Belarusian political opposition figure Sergei Tsikhanousky from prison in late June following a diplomatic push by LTG Keith Kellogg, USA (ret.), the US Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia. His release was a rare concession from a regime known for its tight control and repression. Belarus still holds at least 1,177 political prisoners. According to Lukashenko, he and President Donald Trump began a dialogue soon after the 47^th US President was inaugurated, during which the Belarusian dictator advised President Trump on strategies to keep Vladimir Putin on track to making peace with Ukraine that culminated in the summit in Anchorage in August. Lukashenko claims that the location was his idea. Clearly, President Trump prioritized Tsikhanousky’s release for which he and his wife Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya have expressed gratitude. They are urging the President to do more to pressure Lukashenko’s regime to secure the release of additional political prisoners and to advance democracy and rule of law in Belarus.

Tsikhanousky was arrested in the weeks leading up to the Belarusian presidential elections in 2020 and Tsikhanouskaya ultimately ran in his place. Most observers agree that she was likely the actual victor in what was widely determined to be a sham election. Read ALEC’s Belarus at a Crossroads: Authoritarian Rule or Liberal Democracy for more background.

This January, Lukashenko secured a seventh consecutive term in what was widely condemned as yet another rigged election, and at 71 is one of the longest-serving heads of state in the world. Western governments dismissed official claims that Lukashenko won 87.48% of the vote share, citing the absence of genuine competition and reports of widespread electoral malpractice and corruption. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called it a “blatant affront to democracy,” while Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya labeled it a “senseless farce.” She urged the international community to impose stricter sanctions on Belarusian officials and entities supporting both domestic repression and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Responding to the call, Canada and the UK announced new sanctions targeting Belarusian officials and defense firms.

In the months leading up to the polls, Lukashenko’s government maintained an unrelenting crackdown on dissent. The other four presidential candidates and various opposition leaders were jailed or forced into exile, while independent media outlets were shut down or heavily censored. Just days before the vote, Lukashenko’s administration announced the pardon of 15 prisoners—eight convicted of extremist activities and seven for drug offenses. State media framed the move as an act of clemency or olive branch to the West, but critics saw it as a hollow attempt to feign reform without making substantive political changes.

“As long as Belarus is under Lukashenko and Putin’s control, there will be a constant threat to the peace and security of the entire region”, Tsikhanouskaya warned.

Conversely, Belarus’s key allies—Russia and China—endorsed the election results. Russian President Vladimir Putin personally congratulated Lukashenko, reaffirming their close ties. Chinese President Xi Jinping also extended his congratulations, highlighting Beijing’s strategic interest in maintaining a stable, authoritarian partner in Belarus. Belarus’s relationship with China appears to be growing stronger, as shown by Lukashenko’s recent meeting with Xi, where they discussed deepened cooperation. Notably, Lukashenko announced plans for a monument honoring Xi in front of the newly built football stadium and swimming complex after the meeting and a follow up meeting is in the works.

Lukashenko’s latest term is not just about extending his rule but also ensuring his long-term influence beyond the presidency. Constitutional amendments passed in recent years have created a new position as chairman of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, a role Lukashenko has since assumed. The 2022 constitutional amendments, granting former presidents lifetime immunity, not only solidify Lukashenko’s authority but also bolster Russia and China’s strategic influence in the region by ensuring Belarus remains a reliable partner, facilitating their economic and geopolitical objectives.

Despite discussions about a potential generational transition, no clear successor has emerged and Europe’s oldest dictator shows no signs of stepping down. Speculation revolves around his sons, key technocrats, or high-ranking security officials, but Lukashenko has remained ambiguous.

Compared to 2020 when mass protests erupted, the response to the 2025 election has been muted. Belarusian security forces, now more sophisticated in their tactics, preempted potential uprisings through widespread arrests, digital surveillance, and an aggressive crackdown on independent media. The sheer scale of repression since 2020 has left the opposition fragmented, with many activists either jailed or exiled and dissent even less feasible.

Since 2020, an estimated 300,000 Belarusians have fled the country, further weakening domestic opposition forces. Those who remain face severe restrictions on free speech and assembly. According to Freedom House, Belarus scores just 7 out of 100 on its overall freedom scale, categorizing it as a “consolidated authoritarian regime.”

Lukashenko’s reliance on Moscow and Beijing has never been greater. Following the 2020 protests, Putin provided financial aid and security assistance to prop up his government. Today, Belarus plays a crucial role in Russia’s geopolitical ambitions, particularly in the war against Ukraine. Russian tactical nuclear weapons are now stationed in Belarus, further deepening dependence on the Kremlin, and reports indicate that the Belarusian government has facilitated the indoctrination and militarization of Ukrainian children, aligning with Russia’s broader strategy of erasing Ukrainian identity. Read ALEC’s Bring the Youngest Victims Home in Russia’s War against Ukraine for more background on Russia’s abduction of Ukrainian children.

To support democratic forces in Belarus, experts argue that stronger backing for independent media, civil society, and opposition groups is essential. Some advocate for more direct engagement with regime insiders or initiatives aimed at securing the release of political prisoners.

Beyond its domestic repression, the Union State of Russia and Belarus has played a central role in organizing these efforts, with government-controlled NGOs executing Kremlin-backed reeducation programs. These actions have drawn international condemnation, further isolating Belarus from the global community.

Lukashenko’s hold on power appears firm for now, but underlying challenges persist. His declining health has fueled speculation about an eventual transition, raising concerns about instability within the regime. Without a clear successor or strong institutions to manage the transition, Belarus’s long-term stability remains uncertain.

For now, Belarus is locked in an authoritarian cycle, with its fate increasingly tied to Moscow and Beijing. Lukashenko’s survival hinges on continued Russian and Chinese support, but as Syria’s Bashar al Assad showed us, authoritarian regimes are often more fragile than they appear. Whether through internal dissent, external pressure, or shifting geopolitical dynamics, change in Belarus may come—but when and how remain to be seen.